SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.97%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 6.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.44%) and 1-0 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.32%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
79.97% ( -0.33) | 13.29% ( 0.19) | 6.75% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 44.51% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.28% ( -0.31) | 35.72% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.21% ( -0.34) | 57.79% ( 0.35) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.01% ( -0.13) | 7% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 74.4% ( -0.36) | 25.6% ( 0.36) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.86% ( 0.2) | 52.14% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.9% ( 0.13) | 86.1% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 12.9% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 11.44% ( -0.07)1-0 @ 9.7% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 7.45% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.95% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.61% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.82% Total : 79.96% | 1-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.59% Total : 13.29% | 0-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.31% Total : 6.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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