SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Casa Pia |
34.53% ( 0.03) | 25.59% ( 0.01) | 39.88% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.39% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.41% ( -0.04) | 48.58% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.29% ( -0.03) | 70.7% ( 0.03) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% ( 0) | 27.05% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.58% ( -0) | 62.41% ( 0) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.93% ( -0.04) | 24.07% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.65% ( -0.05) | 58.34% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.13% Other @ 3.05% Total : 34.53% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.65% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 9.27% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.63% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.6% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.88% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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