SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 61.57%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 17.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.95%) and 0-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 2-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Braga |
17.64% ( 0.01) | 20.79% ( 0.01) | 61.57% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.73% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.37% ( -0.01) | 41.62% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.97% ( -0.01) | 64.02% ( 0.01) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.92% ( 0.01) | 37.07% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.14% ( 0.01) | 73.86% ( -0.01) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.98% ( -0.01) | 13.02% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.44% ( -0.02) | 39.56% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 4.84% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.79% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.38% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.63% 3-1 @ 1.6% ( 0)Other @ 2.39% Total : 17.64% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.94% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.83% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.79% | 0-2 @ 10.03% 1-2 @ 9.95% 0-1 @ 9.84% ( 0)0-3 @ 6.82% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.77% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.48% ( -0)1-4 @ 3.45% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.36% 2-4 @ 1.71% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.42% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 3.35% Total : 61.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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