SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 67.85%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 12.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.27%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.29%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Estoril Praia |
67.85% ( -0.44) | 19.56% ( 0.21) | 12.59% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 46.36% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.61% ( -0.36) | 46.39% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.32% ( -0.34) | 68.67% ( 0.33) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.33% ( -0.24) | 12.66% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.17% ( -0.48) | 38.83% ( 0.48) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.08% ( 0.16) | 46.91% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.57% ( 0.12) | 82.42% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 2-0 @ 12.68% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 12.27% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.42% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.93% Total : 67.84% | 1-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.7% Total : 19.56% | 0-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.96% Total : 12.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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