SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 85.09%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 4.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 4-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.87%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (1.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia |
85.09% ( 0.06) | 10.27% ( -0.04) | 4.65% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 43.19% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.17% ( 0.1) | 29.84% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.01% ( 0.13) | 50.99% ( -0.12) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.12% ( 0.03) | 4.88% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 80.38% ( 0.09) | 19.62% ( -0.09) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.4% ( 0.01) | 54.6% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.36% ( 0) | 87.64% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 3-0 @ 12.23% 2-0 @ 12.15% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.05% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.4% 2-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.24% 6-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.69% ( 0)7-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 3.46% Total : 85.08% | 1-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.23% ( -0)Other @ 0.51% Total : 10.27% | 0-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.56% Total : 4.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 71 | 17 | 54 | 77 |
| 2 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 48 | -29 | 16 |
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