SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
35.56% ( -0.79) | 27.39% ( -0.19) | 37.05% ( 0.98) |
| Both teams to score 49.65% ( 0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.05% ( 0.73) | 55.95% ( -0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.96% ( 0.59) | 77.05% ( -0.59) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.01% ( -0.13) | 30% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.89% ( -0.16) | 66.12% ( 0.16) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.92% ( 0.96) | 29.08% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.01% ( 1.17) | 64.99% ( -1.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.32% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.37% Total : 35.55% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.25)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.01% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.57% Total : 37.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 67 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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