SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Portimonense |
43.5% ( -0.66) | 26.27% ( 0.13) | 30.23% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 51.72% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.33% ( -0.27) | 52.67% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.69% ( -0.23) | 74.31% ( 0.23) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.95% ( -0.44) | 24.05% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.67% ( -0.63) | 58.33% ( 0.64) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.1% ( 0.25) | 31.9% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.65% ( 0.28) | 68.35% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.71% Total : 43.49% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.27% | 0-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.76% Total : 30.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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