SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Casa Pia |
40.94% ( 0.25) | 27.12% ( 0.01) | 31.95% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 49.81% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.57% ( -0.12) | 55.43% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.38% ( -0.1) | 76.62% ( 0.09) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.38% ( 0.08) | 26.62% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.15% ( 0.1) | 61.86% ( -0.1) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.89% ( -0.24) | 32.11% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.41% ( -0.27) | 68.59% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 40.93% | 1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.74% Total : 31.95% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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