SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 36.47%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 35.52% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.8%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Rio Ave |
35.52% ( -0.05) | 28.02% ( -0.22) | 36.47% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 47.75% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.69% ( 0.83) | 58.32% ( -0.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.07% ( 0.65) | 78.94% ( -0.64) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.8% ( 0.39) | 31.2% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.46% ( 0.45) | 67.55% ( -0.44) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.4% ( 0.59) | 30.61% ( -0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.16% ( 0.69) | 66.84% ( -0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 11.12% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 2.51% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.06)Other @ 3% Total : 35.52% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.3)2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.76% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.25% Total : 36.46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 64 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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