SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.33%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.29%) and 0-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.15%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (2.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Benfica |
6.71% ( -0.36) | 12.96% ( -0.28) | 80.33% ( 0.64) |
| Both teams to score 45.66% ( -0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.84% ( -0.1) | 34.16% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.95% ( -0.11) | 56.04% ( 0.11) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.89% ( -1.07) | 51.11% ( 1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.58% ( -0.73) | 85.41% ( 0.72) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.4% ( 0.1) | 6.59% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.48% ( 0.29) | 24.52% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.38% Total : 6.71% | 1-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.64% Total : 12.96% | 0-2 @ 12.45% ( 0.21) 0-3 @ 11.29% ( 0.26)0-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.1)1-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 7.68% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 7.58% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 5.15% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 4.18% ( 0.14)1-5 @ 2.8% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.1)0-6 @ 1.89% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.06)1-6 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.3% Total : 80.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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