SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 51.93%. A win for Porto had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
51.93% ( 0.35) | 22.32% ( -0.11) | 25.75% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 61.58% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.82% ( 0.35) | 38.18% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.55% ( 0.37) | 60.45% ( -0.36) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.13% ( 0.24) | 14.87% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.79% ( 0.45) | 43.21% ( -0.45) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( 0.02) | 27.66% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.79% ( 0.02) | 63.21% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.12% Total : 51.93% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.32% | 1-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.73% Total : 25.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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