SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Chaves |
39.6% ( 0.17) | 26.49% ( -0.1) | 33.9% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 52.29% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.48% ( 0.42) | 52.52% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.82% ( 0.36) | 74.18% ( -0.35) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74% ( 0.29) | 26% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.98% ( 0.39) | 61.02% ( -0.38) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.66% ( 0.17) | 29.34% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.68% ( 0.2) | 65.32% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.27% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 6.92% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.81% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.11% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.33% Total : 39.59% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.63% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.73% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.73% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.5% Total : 33.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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