SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 86.66%. A draw had a probability of 9.7% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 3.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.74%) and 4-0 (10.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.58%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (1.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Santa Clara |
86.66% ( -0.21) | 9.68% ( 0.14) | 3.65% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 36.64% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.08% ( -0.37) | 32.92% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.37% ( -0.43) | 54.63% ( 0.43) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.85% ( -0.11) | 5.14% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 79.58% ( -0.31) | 20.41% ( 0.31) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 38.63% ( 0.05) | 61.36% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 8.66% ( 0.02) | 91.33% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 2-0 @ 13.89% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 13.74% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 10.19% ( -0.08)1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 6.79% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.71% ( 0)5-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)7-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.39% Total : 86.64% | 1-1 @ 4.58% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 9.68% | 0-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 1% Total : 3.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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