SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 12.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.48%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Porto |
12.59% ( 0.34) | 20.74% ( 0.49) | 66.67% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 42.83% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.81% ( -1.19) | 51.19% ( 1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.97% ( -1.05) | 73.03% ( 1.05) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.1% ( -0.16) | 49.9% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.41% ( -0.11) | 84.59% ( 0.11) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.49% ( -0.64) | 14.5% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.5% ( -1.24) | 42.5% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.44% Total : 12.59% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.53% Total : 20.74% | 0-1 @ 13.97% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 13.48% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 8.68% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 6.04% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 4.19% ( -0.19)1-4 @ 2.91% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 1.62% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.15% Total : 66.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
