SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Vizela |
33.72% ( 0.05) | 27.78% ( 0.02) | 38.5% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 48.27% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.43% ( -0.07) | 57.58% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.65% ( -0.05) | 78.36% ( 0.06) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68% ( -0) | 32% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.54% ( -0) | 68.47% ( 0) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.99% ( -0.07) | 29.01% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.09% ( -0.09) | 64.91% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Vizela |
| 1-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.46% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.83% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.29% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 33.72% | 1-1 @ 13.09% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.78% | 0-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.11% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.68% Total : 38.5% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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