SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Portimonense |
43.64% ( 0.07) | 25.36% ( 0.02) | 30.99% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 54.98% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.4% ( -0.13) | 48.6% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.28% ( -0.12) | 70.72% ( 0.12) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.77% ( -0.02) | 22.23% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.35% ( -0.04) | 55.65% ( 0.04) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.69% ( -0.13) | 29.31% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.72% ( -0.16) | 65.28% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 43.64% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 8% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.38% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 30.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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