SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 42.69%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Portimonense in this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Gil Vicente |
42.69% ( 0.28) | 25.41% ( -0.07) | 31.91% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 55.24% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.56% ( 0.26) | 48.44% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.43% ( 0.23) | 70.57% ( -0.23) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.39% ( 0.25) | 22.61% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.78% ( 0.36) | 56.22% ( -0.36) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.38% ( -0.01) | 28.62% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.58% ( -0.01) | 64.43% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 9.62% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.21% Total : 42.69% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.4% | 0-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.65% Total : 31.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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