SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 62.24%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.66%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Famalicao win it was 1-0 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
16.02% ( -0.1) | 21.74% ( 0.01) | 62.24% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 48.23% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.43% ( -0.22) | 48.58% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.3% ( -0.2) | 70.7% ( 0.2) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.77% ( -0.26) | 43.23% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.52% ( -0.22) | 79.49% ( 0.22) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.95% ( -0.04) | 15.05% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.45% ( -0.08) | 43.56% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.59% Total : 16.02% | 1-1 @ 10.33% 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.8% Total : 21.74% | 0-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 11.66% ( 0.07)1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 7.37% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 6.18% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.32% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.27% Total : 62.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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