SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.21%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 12.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.49%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
69.21% ( 0.06) | 18.03% ( -0.03) | 12.76% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.13% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.99% ( 0.05) | 39.01% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.66% ( 0.06) | 61.33% ( -0.06) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.8% ( 0.03) | 10.2% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.51% ( 0.07) | 33.49% ( -0.06) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.06% ( -0.01) | 41.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.62% ( -0.01) | 78.38% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 11.14% 1-0 @ 9.77% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0)Other @ 4.56% Total : 69.2% | 1-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.21% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.03% | 0-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 1.46% Total : 12.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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