SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
41.74% ( 0.05) | 25.81% ( -0.01) | 32.44% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 54.09% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.97% ( 0.01) | 50.02% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28% ( 0.01) | 72% ( -0.01) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.24% ( 0.03) | 23.76% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.09% ( 0.05) | 57.9% ( -0.05) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.94% ( -0.02) | 29.05% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.03% ( -0.03) | 64.96% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 9.92% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.22% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 41.74% | 1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.45% 3-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 32.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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