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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.69%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
42.44% ( 0.14) | 23.13% ( 0.01) | 34.43% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 64.25% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.96% ( -0.1) | 37.04% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.77% ( -0.1) | 59.23% ( 0.11) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.05% ( 0.02) | 17.95% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.21% ( 0.03) | 48.79% ( -0.03) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.31% ( -0.12) | 21.69% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.17% ( -0.19) | 54.83% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.84% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.65% 4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.87% Total : 42.44% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 7.81% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.98% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.58% Total : 34.43% |
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