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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 42%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 35.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.32%) and 1-3 (5.15%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
35.95% ( -0.1) | 22.05% ( 0.02) | 42% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 68.86% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.8% ( -0.13) | 31.2% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.38% ( -0.15) | 52.62% ( 0.15) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.73% ( -0.1) | 18.27% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.67% ( -0.17) | 49.32% ( 0.17) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.25% ( -0.02) | 15.75% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.14% ( -0.04) | 44.85% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0) 1-0 @ 4.89% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.35% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.16% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.86% Total : 35.95% | 1-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.55% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 8.36% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.32% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 5.15% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.38% ( 0)2-4 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.91% Total : 42% |
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