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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.23%. A win for Auckland FC had a probability of 24.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest Auckland FC win was 2-1 (6.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Auckland FC | Draw | Melbourne City |
24.5% ( -0.2) | 22.26% ( -0.03) | 53.23% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 60.39% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.86% ( -0.05) | 39.14% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.53% ( -0.05) | 61.47% ( 0.05) |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.86% ( -0.18) | 29.13% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.93% ( -0.23) | 65.06% ( 0.23) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.22% ( 0.06) | 14.78% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.97% ( 0.12) | 43.03% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auckland FC | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.28% Total : 24.5% | 1-1 @ 10.15% 2-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.26% | 1-2 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.87% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 6.19% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.02% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.96% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.4% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.82% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.18% Total : 53.23% |
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