SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.12%) and 3-1 (4.99%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
40.67% ( -0.31) | 22% ( 0.2) | 37.32% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 69.3% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.28% ( -1) | 30.71% ( 1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.95% ( -1.2) | 52.05% ( 1.21) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.94% ( -0.54) | 16.06% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.57% ( -0.99) | 45.43% ( 0.99) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.56% ( -0.39) | 17.44% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.1% ( -0.69) | 47.9% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 2.86% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.75% Total : 40.67% | 1-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.58% Total : 22% | 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 4.89% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 4.55% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.06)3-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.17% Total : 37.32% |
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