SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 55.99%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 22.79% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.81%) and 0-1 (7.62%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
22.79% ( -0.56) | 21.23% ( -0.05) | 55.99% ( 0.62) |
| Both teams to score 61.97% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.88% ( -0.43) | 36.12% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.77% ( -0.48) | 58.23% ( 0.48) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.14% ( -0.7) | 28.86% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.28% ( -0.88) | 64.73% ( 0.88) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.11% ( 0.04) | 12.89% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.7% ( 0.08) | 39.3% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.28% Total : 22.79% | 1-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.3% Total : 21.23% | 1-2 @ 9.7% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 7.81% ( 0.19)0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 6.63% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 5.33% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 3.39% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.73% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.04% Total : 55.99% |
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