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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 36.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
39.51% ( -1.05) | 23.86% ( -0) | 36.63% ( 1.06) |
| Both teams to score 61.95% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.77% ( 0.18) | 40.23% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.4% ( 0.18) | 62.6% ( -0.17) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.42% ( -0.41) | 20.58% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.88% ( -0.66) | 53.12% ( 0.66) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78% ( 0.63) | 22% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.69% ( 0.95) | 55.31% ( -0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.13) 1-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.91% Total : 39.51% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.85% | 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 6.86% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 4.14% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.54% Total : 36.63% |
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