SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 51.37%. A win for Western United had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
51.37% ( 0.09) | 22.49% ( -0.02) | 26.14% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 61.34% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.33% ( 0.02) | 38.67% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.03% ( 0.02) | 60.97% ( -0.02) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.77% ( 0.04) | 15.23% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.1% ( 0.08) | 43.89% ( -0.07) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.36% ( -0.04) | 27.63% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.82% ( -0.05) | 63.18% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.92% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.87% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.82% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 3.94% Total : 51.37% | 1-1 @ 10.18% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.16% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.49% | 1-2 @ 6.55% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 2.85% Total : 26.14% |
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