SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.65%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 21.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
56.65% ( 0.72) | 22% ( -0.06) | 21.34% ( -0.66) |
| Both teams to score 57.08% ( -0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.39% ( -0.58) | 41.6% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.99% ( -0.59) | 64% ( 0.59) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.48% ( 0.04) | 14.51% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.48% ( 0.07) | 42.52% ( -0.07) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.77% ( -0.94) | 33.23% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.16% ( -1.05) | 69.83% ( 1.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 3% Total : 56.65% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22% | 1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 5.31% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.3% Total : 21.34% |
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