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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 36.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
38.34% ( 0.85) | 25.33% ( 0.13) | 36.33% ( -0.98) |
| Both teams to score 56.56% ( -0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.82% ( -0.63) | 47.18% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.59% ( -0.59) | 69.41% ( 0.59) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.76% ( 0.17) | 24.24% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.41% ( 0.23) | 58.59% ( -0.23) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( -0.83) | 25.33% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.88% ( -1.16) | 60.12% ( 1.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 1-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 4% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 38.34% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.2% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.74% Total : 36.33% |
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