SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
39.92% ( 0.03) | 24.68% ( -0.08) | 35.4% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 58.75% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.69% ( 0.38) | 44.31% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.32% ( 0.37) | 66.68% ( -0.36) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.84% ( 0.18) | 22.16% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.45% ( 0.27) | 55.55% ( -0.26) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.48% ( 0.21) | 24.52% ( -0.2) |
