SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
32.96% ( 0.36) | 24.83% ( 0.13) | 42.21% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 57.61% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.46% ( -0.46) | 45.54% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.14% ( -0.44) | 67.86% ( 0.44) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.46% ( 0) | 26.54% ( 0) |
