SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 63.98%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 16.33%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.16%), while for a Empoli win it was 2-1 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Empoli | Draw | AC Milan |
16.33% ( -0) | 19.7% ( -0) | 63.98% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 55.74% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.05% ( 0.01) | 38.95% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.73% ( 0.01) | 61.27% ( -0.01) |
| Empoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63% | 37% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.22% | 73.79% |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.47% ( 0) | 11.53% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.56% ( 0.01) | 36.44% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Empoli | Draw | AC Milan |
| 2-1 @ 4.56% ( -0) 1-0 @ 4.24% ( -0)2-0 @ 2.11% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.63% 3-1 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.28% Total : 16.33% | 1-1 @ 9.16% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.27% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 0.17% Total : 19.7% | 0-2 @ 9.95% 1-2 @ 9.9% 0-1 @ 9.22% ( -0)0-3 @ 7.17% ( 0)1-3 @ 7.13% ( 0)0-4 @ 3.87% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.85% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.54% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.91% 0-5 @ 1.67% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.66% ( 0)Other @ 4.11% Total : 63.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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