SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | Lecce | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 5 | -7 | 2 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 5 | -5 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Napoli | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Udinese | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 72.78%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 10.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.06%) and 0-3 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 1-0 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sampdoria | Draw | AC Milan |
10.18% ( -0.06) | 17.03% ( -0.1) | 72.78% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 46.72% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.48% ( 0.26) | 41.51% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.08% ( 0.26) | 63.91% ( -0.27) |
| Sampdoria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.9% ( 0.04) | 48.09% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.7% ( 0.03) | 83.29% ( -0.04) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.01% ( 0.11) | 9.99% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67% ( 0.25) | 32.99% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sampdoria | Draw | AC Milan |
| 1-0 @ 3.52% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.42% Total : 10.19% | 1-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.42% ( 0)Other @ 0.71% Total : 17.03% | 0-2 @ 12.74% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 11.06% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 9.79% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 7.17% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 5.64% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 4.13% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 2.6% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 1.9% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)0-6 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.28% Total : 72.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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