SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Atalanta BC | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Udinese | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Napoli | 6 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Atalanta BC | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 6 | 6 | 14 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 35.82%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Napoli |
35.82% ( 0.26) | 28.62% ( 0.19) | 35.56% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 45.95% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.49% ( -0.69) | 60.51% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.37% ( -0.52) | 80.62% ( 0.52) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.87% ( -0.18) | 32.12% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.4% ( -0.21) | 68.6% ( 0.21) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.71% ( -0.65) | 32.29% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.2% ( -0.74) | 68.8% ( 0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Napoli |
| 1-0 @ 11.78% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.78% Total : 35.82% | 1-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.61% | 0-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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