At least three goals have been scored in each of the last five Serie A matches between these teams in Naples (22 in total; more than four on average), but this could well be a more cagey affair.
There was little to split the sides in the reverse fixture, so a single goal could decide the destiny of three precious points - leaving the losers playing catch-up in the title race.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
