SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Galatasaray |
47.05% ( -0.85) | 23.36% ( 0.22) | 29.58% ( 0.62) |
| Both teams to score 61.09% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.77% ( -0.68) | 40.22% ( 0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.4% ( -0.71) | 62.59% ( 0.7) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.62% ( -0.59) | 17.37% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.21% ( -1.03) | 47.78% ( 1.03) |
| Galatasaray Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.94% ( 0.06) | 26.06% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.89% ( 0.09) | 61.1% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Galatasaray |
| 2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.93% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.44% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.98% Total : 47.05% | 1-1 @ 10.65% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.35% | 1-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.35% Total : 29.58% |
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