SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
30.21% ( -0.37) | 25.16% ( 0.24) | 44.64% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 55.27% ( -1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.96% ( -1.24) | 48.04% ( 1.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.79% ( -1.15) | 70.21% ( 1.15) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.44% ( -0.88) | 29.56% ( 0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.41% ( -1.08) | 65.59% ( 1.08) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.47% ( -0.46) | 21.53% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.4% ( -0.71) | 54.59% ( 0.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.33% Total : 30.21% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.15% | 0-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 4.68% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.84% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.46% Total : 44.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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