SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Braga had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 1-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Braga win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
59.87% ( 0.64) | 20.45% ( 0.05) | 19.67% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 59.87% ( -1.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.31% ( -1.31) | 36.69% ( 1.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.15% ( -1.43) | 58.85% ( 1.43) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.03% ( -0.23) | 11.96% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.63% ( -0.48) | 37.36% ( 0.48) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.01% ( -1.43) | 31.99% ( 1.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.55% ( -1.67) | 68.45% ( 1.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.4)1-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.44)3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.23)3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.27% Total : 59.87% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.24)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.45% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.47% Total : 19.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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