SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.62%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 4-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.15%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
82.62% ( -0.04) | 11.22% ( 0.07) | 6.16% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.44% ( -0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.06% ( -0.6) | 26.94% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.77) | 47.42% ( 0.76) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.23% ( -0.12) | 4.77% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 80.71% ( -0.35) | 19.29% ( 0.35) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.97% ( -0.61) | 47.03% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.49% ( -0.47) | 82.51% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 3-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.07)6-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.05)5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.05)7-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.4% Total : 82.61% | 1-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.87% Total : 11.22% | 1-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.52% Total : 6.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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