Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 76.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.27%) and 0-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
8.54% ( -0.03) | 14.66% ( -0.04) | 76.79% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 48.61% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.55% ( 0.08) | 35.45% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.51% ( 0.09) | 57.49% ( -0.09) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.6% ( -0.01) | 47.4% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.21% ( -0.01) | 82.78% ( 0) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.4% ( 0.03) | 7.59% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
72.83% ( 0.08) | 27.17% ( -0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.27% Total : 8.55% | 1-1 @ 6.93% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.33% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 14.66% | 0-2 @ 11.95% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.67% ( 0) 0-4 @ 6.62% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 4.95% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 3.42% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.86% ( 0) 1-5 @ 2.55% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.85% ( 0) 0-6 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 1-6 @ 1.1% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 76.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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