Rayo's home form this season has been impressive, and they beat Valencia 2-0 when the two teams last locked horns in the Spanish capital in April 2019. Los Che will be confident of winning this match, but we are finding it difficult to separate the two sides, ultimately backing a low-scoring draw at Estadio de Vallecas.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
