This has all of the makings of a fascinating contest, and it is likely to be a very tight second leg at Mestalla. It would not be a surprise to see either side advance to the final, but we just have a feeling that Athletic will shade the contest in 90 minutes to secure a 2-1 aggregate success.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 34.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Valencia win was 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
