SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 3 | 62 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
33.85% ( 0.06) | 27.39% ( 0.03) | 38.76% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 49.47% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.92% ( -0.11) | 56.08% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.85% ( -0.09) | 77.16% ( 0.09) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.84% ( -0.02) | 31.16% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.51% ( -0.02) | 67.49% ( 0.02) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.86% ( -0.11) | 28.14% ( 0.11) |
