SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 72.61%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for York City had a probability of 11.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.64%), while for a York City win it was 1-2 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | York City |
72.61% ( 0.23) | 16.36% ( -0.07) | 11.03% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.47% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.29% ( -0.19) | 35.71% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.22% ( -0.21) | 57.78% ( 0.22) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.45% ( 0.01) | 8.55% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.41% ( 0.01) | 29.59% ( -0.01) |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.38% ( -0.43) | 42.62% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.03% ( -0.37) | 78.97% ( 0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | York City |
| 2-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 9.03% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 2.33% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.77% Total : 72.61% | 1-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.36% | 1-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.27% Total : 11.03% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Bromley | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 27 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 24 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Woking | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 |
| 14 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 22 |
| 15 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 21 |
| 17 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 17 |
| 20 | Fylde | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 16 |
| 21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 |
| 22 | York City | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 16 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
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