SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 2-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Chesterfield in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rochdale | Draw | Chesterfield |
31.44% ( 0.31) | 23.75% ( 0.07) | 44.8% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 60.76% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.87% ( -0.21) | 41.13% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.47% ( -0.21) | 63.52% ( 0.21) |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( 0.09) | 25.33% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.88% ( 0.12) | 60.11% ( -0.12) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.37% ( -0.24) | 18.63% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.06% ( -0.4) | 49.93% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rochdale | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.54% Total : 31.44% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.75% | 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.48% Total : 44.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Bromley | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 27 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 24 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Woking | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 22 |
| 14 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 15 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
| 16 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 17 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 17 |
| 20 | Fylde | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 16 |
| 21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 |
| 22 | York City | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 16 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
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