SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnet win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for York City had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnet win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest York City win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnet would win this match.
| Result | ||
| York City | Draw | Barnet |
29.35% ( -0.05) | 25.5% ( 0.02) | 45.15% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 53.66% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.07% ( -0.11) | 49.93% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.08% ( -0.1) | 71.91% ( 0.1) |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.87% ( -0.1) | 31.13% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.54% ( -0.11) | 67.46% ( 0.11) |
| Barnet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.91% ( -0.03) | 22.09% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.55% ( -0.05) | 55.44% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| York City | Draw | Barnet |
| 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.68% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.92% Total : 29.35% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.49% | 0-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.15% 0-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.61% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.49% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 45.14% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Bromley | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 27 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 24 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Woking | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 22 |
| 14 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 15 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
| 16 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 17 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 17 |
| 20 | Fylde | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 16 |
| 21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 |
| 22 | York City | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 16 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
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