Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 Marseille - Ligue 1 - October 16, 2022 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings - Football

The result of Sunday's derby could very well hinge on Messi's availability, and if the silky Argentine is indeed ruled out, Le Classique may not be much of a classic at all for the home crowd. As eye-catching as Marseille's wins over Sporting were, they must be taken with a great pinch of salt given their opponents' lack of discipline, and a depleted Galtier defence can still hold firm to maintain their grip on first place. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 58.21%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 18.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Paris Saint-Germain in this match.

Result
Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Marseille
58.21% ( -0.29)	22.86% ( 0.07)	18.93% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 50.39% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.4% (

0.05)

48.61% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.28% (

0.05)

70.72% (

-0.05)

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.6% (

-0.08)

16.4% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.95% (

-0.15)

46.05% (

0.15)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.28% (

0.29)

39.72% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.61% (

0.26)

76.4% (

-0.26)

Score Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain 58.19%

Marseille 18.93%

Draw 22.86%

Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 58.19%	1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.52% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.94% Total : 22.86%	0-1 @ 6.02% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.18% Total : 18.93%

Form, Standings, Stats