SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
30.59% ( 0.05) | 23.04% ( -0.02) | 46.37% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 62.89% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.87% ( 0.13) | 38.13% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.6% ( 0.14) | 60.4% ( -0.13) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.62% ( 0.1) | 24.38% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.21% ( 0.13) | 58.79% ( -0.13) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.17% ( 0.04) | 16.83% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.18% ( 0.07) | 46.82% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.09% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 30.59% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.04% | 1-2 @ 9.2% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.46% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.86% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.72% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.28% Total : 46.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 66 | 45 | 21 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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