SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Portimonense | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Chaves | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Sporting Lisbon | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 4 | -2 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 16.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.01%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
16.21% ( -0.36) | 20.92% ( -0) | 62.87% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 51.23% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.24% ( -0.63) | 44.76% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.88% ( -0.61) | 67.12% ( 0.61) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.31% ( -0.83) | 40.69% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.72% ( -0.76) | 77.28% ( 0.76) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.38% ( -0.09) | 13.62% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.23% ( -0.18) | 40.77% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 2.24% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.84% Total : 16.21% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.99% Total : 20.92% | 0-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 11.01% ( 0.23)1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 7.32% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 6.58% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.65% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 3.28% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.46% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.88% Total : 62.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 22 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 59 |
| 2 | Porto | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 14 | 35 | 51 |
| 3 | Braga | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 49 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 23 | 20 | 41 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 32 |
| 8 | BoavistaBoavista | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 27 |
| 11 | Vizela | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 26 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 26 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 15 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 12 |
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