SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Lille | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Auxerre | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Nantes | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Lens | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Marseille | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 4 | 5 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Auxerre | Draw | Marseille |
29.47% ( 1.71) | 25.32% ( -0.06) | 45.21% ( -1.65) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( 1.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.91% ( 1.18) | 49.09% ( -1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.84% ( 1.06) | 71.16% ( -1.06) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.38% ( 1.88) | 30.61% ( -1.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.15% ( 2.17) | 66.85% ( -2.17) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.29% ( -0.25) | 21.71% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.13% ( -0.38) | 54.87% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auxerre | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.33)2-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.27)3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.19)Other @ 3.05% Total : 29.47% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.33)2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.58) 1-2 @ 9.18% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 7.75% ( -0.5)1-3 @ 4.67% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.29)2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.39% Total : 45.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 76 | 34 | 42 | 75 |
| 2 | Marseille | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 67 |
| 3 | Lens | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 66 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 50 | 16 | 61 |
| 5 | Lille | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 40 | 20 | 59 |
| 6 | Rennes | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 36 | 19 | 56 |
| 7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 52 | 37 | 15 | 53 |
| 8 | Clermont | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 49 |
| 9 | Nice | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 48 |
| 10 | Lorient | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 48 |
| 11 | Reims | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 47 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 43 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 33 |
| 15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 32 |
| 16 | NantesNantes | 32 | 6 | 14 | 12 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 32 |
| 17 | Brest | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 32 |
| 18 | Troyes | 33 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 22 |
| 19 | Ajaccio | 33 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 61 | -39 | 22 |
| R | Angers | 33 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 72 | -45 | 14 |
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